Avoiding the OS Phase ®

My mother passed away in 2004 at the age of 91. Her sister, Sue, died 2 years later at the age of 100.

Both lived through the Great Depression.

Both passed away, many years retired from their teaching professions.

Both enjoyed a fulfilling retirement, taking cruises and traveling the world.

Both were generous to those without.

Both died with money in the bank.

My mother’s car was 25 years old when she stopped driving. The air conditioner didn’t work well. She could have afforded a new car.

Mom had survived the Great Depression.

Her 1979 Malibu got the job done.

We shared Christmas vacations together. Every Christmas Aunt Sue gave me a special gift — a package of three white T-shirts.

Sue survived the Great Depression.

As a nation, we had a working retirement system supported by the companies where everyone had spent lifetimes working. Mom and Sue had good pensions from their lifetimes of teaching the next generation. As a nation, we had Social Security.

Mom and Sue shared many stories with my sisters and me about the Great Depression. They shared the same stories with our children as they grew up and visited with Grandma and Great Aunt Sue. Their stories about the Great Depression and how they survived were interesting at first, but didn’t seem relevant anymore. We always smiled at each other and winked when one of them shared another historical perspective. After all, as baby boomers, we had our own experiences that were more relevant. We experienced gas lines of the 1970’s, the oil crash in Texas in early 1980. My wife and I actually listed our home in Pennsylvania on the “morning” of Black Friday in 1987. We were heavily invested in tech stocks in the early 2000’s. We were experienced with hard times as well, and despite the stories that mom and Sue shared, these events weren’t really that bad.

Then 2008 hit – holy crap!

It’s finally happened.

Our country hit the wall or as I call it, we hit the economic OS Phase.

Even if it didn’t impact everyone in the country directly, we all saw the impact to our relatives and friends. We knew the heartbreak felt by many.

No one has classified these events as a “Depression,” but tell that to the new unemployed and tell that to all of those that are loosing everything they had spent their lifetimes acquiring.

Despite what is stated by our elected officials …This is our “Depression.”

This is the one we will share with our grandchildren and their children.

We have to share our experiences.

We have to tell the next generation to save some money and keep their debt under control and to understand and manage risks better.

We have to elect leaders that know how to manage a budget and can implement changes experienced from the recent lessons learned.

We have to … we just have to!

We have so many stories to tell and warn everyone about.

I hope the next generation listens.

It is time to start buying T-shirts.

A cliché used by my team 35 years ago came to mind this week when considering the relevance of the current AIG controversy. It seems that everyone, Republicans and Democrats alike are trying to stop $165 million in bonuses for AIG executives. While the merit of any monies owed to these executives does seem bizarre, the idiocy of the intense scrutiny ties back to the 1970’s cliché.

“The amount of senior management attention to a cost estimate is most often inversely proportional to the dollar amount of the estimate.”

The amount of attention and review of elements of the $787 billion bailout estimate was minuscule compared to the current attention paid to the bonuses. If Washington is ever going to get the respect of the rest of nation, it’s time that someone pays attention to the intricate details of all of the bailouts approved to date, not just what surfaces in the news each week.

The financial markets have hit the OS Phase and it’s so frustrating that there is so little we can do about it. It’s like watching a movie and feeling helpless.

Waiting for the next shoe to drop is quickly becoming our daily past time. Listening to the news headlines each day is painful. This is the reality.

The questions that will remain for a long time are, “How did this collapse happen?” and “How can it be avoided in the future?” There is a lot of speculation and finger pointing, but the answers are still uncertain.

Without those answers, it’s hard to feel confident about any bailout plan since it’s not real clear what the deliverables are …. and as far as objectives, there are none that are presented to the public.

We’ve hired a project manager for ½ billion dollars who is now being questioned. What are their deliverables? What are the objectives? What is their scope?

We all know how pointless an estimate is if we don’t know the scope of what we’re doing.

There are estimates already that the total bailout will cost in the trillions (typical governmental factor of 3 versus original estimates). It’s time for an accounting. In 2 weeks time though, the Big 3 raised their estimate 33%. The increase resulted from them actually looking at some of the details. If they had taken 4 weeks to come up with an estimate, imagine what it might have been.

We’ve hit the OS Phase as a country and it will take everyone to fix the problem.

We just need to know where we can help.

The world has hit the financial OS Phase.  No one saw it coming, and even those in charge are stumped as to how to fix it.  Worldwide, leaders have been forced to take a reactionary stance, putting out fires where they spring up without ever addressing the root process problems which caused this crisis in the first place.    Buy Bob’s newest book, Avoiding the OS Phase now while we still have time!